The latest RESPOND Online Seminar, organised by the Government Transparency Institute, explored how linking public procurement records with electoral, corporate and other administrative data can provide new evidence of corruption risks and political favouritism.

Ágnes Czibik, Managing Director of the Government Transparency Institute, opened the seminar by explaining why public procurement data is particularly valuable for corruption research. Procurement accounts for a substantial share of government expenditure and records real transactions rather than perceptions or recalled experiences. It can therefore reveal patterns in how contracts are designed, awarded and implemented.

Procurement data can be used to construct corruption-risk indicators, including single-bid processes, unusually short submission periods, non-open procedures, repeated cancellations, and major increases in contract prices. While none of these indicators proves corruption on its own, combining and validating them can help identify transactions that warrant closer scrutiny.

Agnés Czibik explained that procurement records become significantly more informative when linked with other administrative sources. Company registers, beneficial ownership information, and lists of political officeholders can help uncover relationships between suppliers and political actors. Electoral results and political-donation data can, in turn, help researchers examine the incentives and political outcomes associated with procurement decisions.

Daniel Kofran, Senior Analyst at the Government Transparency Institute, then presented an early study linking procurement spending with political alignment in municipalities in Hungary, Croatia and Romania.

The research examined whether municipalities governed by mayors aligned with the national government received greater levels of locally controlled procurement spending. It also tested whether municipalities were rewarded after moving into political alignment or punished after moving out of it.

The results found a positive association between political alignment and procurement spending in Hungary and Romania. The strongest evidence came from Hungary, where municipalities moving out of alignment experienced an estimated 38 per cent reduction in procurement spending, while those moving into alignment experienced an increase of approximately 106 per cent. The findings for Croatia and Romania’s more detailed reward-and-punishment mechanisms were less conclusive.

The discussion highlighted the importance of data quality, particularly the availability of reliable identifiers that enable procurement, company, and electoral records to be linked. Participants also considered the policy implications of the research, including reducing discretionary funding and ensuring that funding decisions are subject to transparent, plural and independent scrutiny.

The next RESPOND Online Seminar will be hosted by ICS-ULisboa in September 2026, following the summer break.